Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 28

Sparta Praha–Karviná

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Sparta PrahaO. Sonne (assist: J. Martinec)
67'Sparta PrahaJohn Mercado (assist: Hugo Sochurek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Karviná
17	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
14	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
456	Passes	319
394	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 2.41 · Karviná 0.80. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sparta Praha 17 · Karviná 13; on target 8 and 1.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

K. Roucek→

3.71

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.8%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for Sparta Praha, 0.80 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Sparta Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 980 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win73.8%

Draw17.0%

Karviná to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 947 of 1,266 predictions were correct (74.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,845 of 7,510 predictions were correct (51.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sparta Praha win or draw90.8%

12 — any result other than a draw83.0%

X2 — draw or Karviná win26.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sparta Praha lead at half-time47.2%

Level at half-time37.8%

Karviná lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead52.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 980 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 7
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 5Actual: 14
Karviná: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score2.41

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.41 goals.

How many goals Karviná score0.80

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.3%3–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 980 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 86 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.