Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 28

Hradec Králové–Bohemians 1905

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Hradec KrálovéO. Mihalik
68'Hradec KrálovéO. Mihalik (assist: S. Dancak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Bohemians 1905
7	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
425	Passes	357
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.37 · Bohemians 1905 1.11. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 7 · Bohemians 1905 12; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

L. Nehasil→

3.33

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “Bohemians 1905 to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Hradec Králové, 1.11 for Bohemians 1905.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win42.0%

Draw28.9%

Bohemians 1905 to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time37.1%

Level at half-time45.2%

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Bohemians 1905 ahead62.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 9Actual: 6
Bohemians 1905: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 4
Bohemians 1905: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.37

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.11

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–010.7%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.