Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 28

Sigma Olomouc–Mlada Boleslav

2–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Mlada BoleslavC. Kabongo (assist: D. Kostka)
56'Mlada BoleslavC. Kabongo (assist: Roman Macek)
60'Mlada BoleslavSolomon John (assist: D. Kozel)
65'Sigma OlomoucPéter Baráth (assist: Jiří Sláma)
75'Sigma OlomoucD. Šturm (assist: Péter Baráth)
90'Mlada Boleslav

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Mlada Boleslav
12	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	7
2	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
447	Passes	358
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 1.57 · Mlada Boleslav 0.97. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 12 · Mlada Boleslav 16; on target 7 and 7.
Sigma Olomouc kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Benes→

5.30

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Sigma Olomouc to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Sigma Olomouc, 0.97 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Sigma Olomouc win or draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win50.9%

Draw27.1%

Mlada Boleslav to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time40.6%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 12Actual: 12
Mlada Boleslav: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 5Actual: 9
Mlada Boleslav: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.57

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score0.97

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.6%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.