Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 28

Slovan Liberec–Slovácko

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

Goals and red cards

36'Slovan LiberecR. Krollis (assist: P. Hodous)
39'SlováckoM. Havlík
65'Slovan LiberecT. Diakité (assist: Lukáš Masopust)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		Slovácko
20	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
430	Passes	313
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 1.68 · Slovácko 0.80. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Slovan Liberec 20 · Slovácko 5; on target 6 and 3.
Slovan Liberec kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

O. Berka→

3.82

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “Slovan Liberec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Slovan Liberec, 0.80 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Slovan Liberec win or draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win58.6%

Draw25.4%

Slovácko to win16.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time47.0%

Level at half-time40.5%

Slovácko lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead53.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 13Actual: 13
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 5Actual: 5
Slovácko: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.68

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score0.80

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.5%1–112.8%2–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.