Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 28

Zlin–FK Jablonec

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letna, Zlin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'FK JablonecL. Jawo (assist: F. Zorvan)
36'FK JablonecDominik Hollý (assist: L. Jawo)
59'FK JablonecN. Tekijaski (assist: F. Zorvan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zlin		FK Jablonec
11	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	8
2	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	12
3	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
339	Passes	274
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zlin 1.14 · FK Jablonec 1.31. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Zlin 11 · FK Jablonec 12; on target 1 and 8.

Referee

M. Radina→

4.36

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “Zlin to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Zlin, 1.31 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zlin to win31.1%

Draw29.3%

FK Jablonec to win39.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Zlin lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time43.2%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time33.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Zlin ahead or level66.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zlin: at least 12Actual: 20
FK Jablonec: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

Zlin: at least 4Actual: 4
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zlin score1.14

Attack: Zlin score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.31

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zlin's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.5%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.