Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 26

Dukla Praha–FK Jablonec

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

13'Dukla PrahaDantaye Gilbert (assist: L. Penxa)
17'Dukla PrahaL. Penxa (assist: D. Kreiker)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		FK Jablonec
10	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	13
3	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
277	Passes	439
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 0.83 · FK Jablonec 1.44. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Dukla Praha 10 · FK Jablonec 20; on target 3 and 4.
FK Jablonec kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

O. Berka→

3.82

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Dukla Praha, 1.44 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (X2 — draw or FK Jablonec win).
These values were computed from 965 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win20.2%

Draw28.6%

FK Jablonec to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Dukla Praha lead at half-time13.6%

Level at half-time41.8%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time44.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level55.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead86.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 965 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 12Actual: 14
FK Jablonec: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 4Actual: 2
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score0.83

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.44

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.3%1–114.2%0–211.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.