Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 24

Pardubice–Teplice

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'TepliceM. Bilek (penalty)
40'PardubiceV. Patrak (assist: Ladislav Krobot)
79'TepliceJan Fortelný · red card
89'PardubiceEmmanuel Godwin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pardubice		Teplice
13	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
65%	Possession	35%
431	Passes	231
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pardubice 1.27 · Teplice 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Pardubice 13 · Teplice 10; on target 5 and 4.
Pardubice kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. Benes→

5.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Pardubice to win”. Second comes “Teplice to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Pardubice, 1.10 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pardubice to win39.4%

Draw29.8%

Teplice to win30.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Pardubice lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time47.0%

Teplice lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Pardubice ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 950 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pardubice: at least 13Actual: 11
Teplice: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Pardubice: at least 4Actual: 6
Teplice: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pardubice score1.27

Attack: Pardubice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.10

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pardubice concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.0%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.