Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 24

Mlada Boleslav–FK Jablonec

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'Mlada BoleslavM. Ševčík (assist: Solomon John)
52'Mlada BoleslavD. Kostka
55'Mlada BoleslavE. Sobol (own goal)
90+5'FK JablonecAlexis Alegue · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mlada Boleslav		FK Jablonec
9	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
394	Passes	439
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mlada Boleslav 1.01 · FK Jablonec 1.58. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Mlada Boleslav 9 · FK Jablonec 16; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

P. Orel→

3.53

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.58 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (X2 — draw or FK Jablonec win).
These values were computed from 950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mlada Boleslav to win22.7%

Draw27.0%

FK Jablonec to win50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time15.8%

Level at half-time39.4%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Mlada Boleslav ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead84.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 950 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mlada Boleslav: at least 11Actual: 7
FK Jablonec: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Mlada Boleslav: at least 5Actual: 2
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.01

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.58

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%0–111.1%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.