Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 23

Slavia Praha–Slovan Liberec

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Slovan Liberec
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
12	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
290	Passes	254
204	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 1.91 · Slovan Liberec 0.73. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Slavia Praha 16 · Slovan Liberec 9; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

O. Pechanec→

4.87

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.9%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Slavia Praha, 0.73 for Slovan Liberec.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 944 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win65.9%

Draw22.1%

Slovan Liberec to win12.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slavia Praha lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time41.1%

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Slovan Liberec ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 944 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 16
Slovan Liberec: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 6Actual: 12
Slovan Liberec: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.91

Attack: Slavia Praha score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovan Liberec score0.73

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%1–013.1%1–111.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.