Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 23

FK Jablonec–Karviná

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'FK JablonecS. Nebyla

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Karviná
15	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	7
15	Shots inside the box	10
8	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	8
0	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
321	Passes	395
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 1.75 · Karviná 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Jablonec 15 · Karviná 18; on target 6 and 7.
Karviná kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Benes→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for FK Jablonec, 1.07 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — FK Jablonec win or draw).
These values were computed from 941 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win53.2%

Draw25.2%

Karviná to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,527 of 6,231 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FK Jablonec win or draw78.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Karviná win46.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Jablonec lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time37.4%

Karviná lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Jablonec ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 941 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Jablonec: at least 11Actual: 12
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

FK Jablonec: at least 5Actual: 8
Karviná: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.75

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score1.07

Attack: Karviná score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 941 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 82 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.