Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 18

Dukla Praha–Slovan Liberec

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'Dukla PrahaM. Kroupa (assist: J. Kadák)
90'Slovan LiberecR. Krollis (assist: A. N'Guessan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		Slovan Liberec
11	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
6	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
210	Passes	327
119	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 0.83 · Slovan Liberec 1.53. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dukla Praha 11 · Slovan Liberec 19; on target 3 and 5.
Slovan Liberec kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. Vokoun→

4.23

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Slovan Liberec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.83 for Dukla Praha, 1.53 for Slovan Liberec.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (X2 — draw or Slovan Liberec win).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win18.9%

Draw27.5%

Slovan Liberec to win53.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dukla Praha lead at half-time11.9%

Level at half-time39.2%

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time48.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level51.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Slovan Liberec ahead88.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 11Actual: 17
Slovan Liberec: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 4Actual: 7
Slovan Liberec: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score0.83

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.53

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.9%1–113.8%0–211.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.