Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 15

Hradec Králové–Slovácko

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Hradec KrálovéVáclav Pilař (assist: A. Vlkanova)
72'Hradec KrálovéT. Sloncik
80'Hradec KrálovéO. Mihalik (assist: J. Kucera)
90'Hradec KrálovéT. Sloncik (assist: L. Kubr)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Slovácko
19	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
389	Passes	468
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.47 · Slovácko 0.99. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 19 · Slovácko 12; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

O. Pechanec→

4.95

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Hradec Králové, 0.99 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 76.0% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win47.8%

Draw28.2%

Slovácko to win24.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time58.5%

Level at half-time34.7%

Slovácko lead at half-time6.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level93.1%

12 — not level at half-time65.3%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead41.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 11Actual: 7
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 5Actual: 9
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.47

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score0.99

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–011.8%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.