Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 14

FK Jablonec–Zlin

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'ZlinS. Kanu (assist: J. Didiba)
40'ZlinL. Bartosak
43'ZlinS. Kanu (assist: Tom Ulbrich)
76'FK JablonecDavid Puškáč (assist: Richard Sedláček)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Zlin
16	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
12	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
519	Passes	253
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 1.66 · Zlin 0.78. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FK Jablonec 16 · Zlin 7; on target 6 and 5.
FK Jablonec kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Pavel Orel, Czechia→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.6%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for FK Jablonec, 0.78 for Zlin.
The highest double chance value is 84.2% (1X — FK Jablonec win or draw).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win58.6%

Draw25.5%

Zlin to win15.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

FK Jablonec lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time41.3%

Zlin lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Jablonec ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Zlin ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Jablonec: at least 11Actual: 12
Zlin: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

FK Jablonec: at least 5Actual: 12
Zlin: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.66

Attack: FK Jablonec score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Zlin's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zlin score0.78

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.9%1–112.8%2–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.