Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 13

Sigma Olomouc–Slavia Praha

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Slavia Praha
4	Shots	11
0	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	14
0	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
213	Passes	332
118	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 0.65 · Slavia Praha 1.76. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 4 · Slavia Praha 11; on target 0 and 5.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Dominik Stary, Czechia→

3.10

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.6%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.65 for Sigma Olomouc, 1.76 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (X2 — draw or Slavia Praha win).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win11.8%

Draw23.6%

Slavia Praha to win64.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time18.1%

Level at half-time43.2%

Slavia Praha lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Slavia Praha ahead81.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 866 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 10
Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 3Actual: 6
Slavia Praha: at least 5Actual: 14

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score0.65

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.76

Attack: Slavia Praha score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.4%0–214.5%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.