Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 13

Slovan Liberec–FK Jablonec

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'FK JablonecV. Chanturishvili (assist: J. Chramosta)
68'FK JablonecL. Jawo (assist: M. Polidar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		FK Jablonec
9	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
280	Passes	444
204	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 1.19 · FK Jablonec 1.21. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Slovan Liberec 9 · FK Jablonec 10; on target 1 and 5.
FK Jablonec kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jan Benes, Czechia→

7.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.5%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “Slovan Liberec to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Slovan Liberec, 1.21 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 865 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win34.7%

Draw29.7%

FK Jablonec to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

25	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time25.0%

Level at half-time43.8%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead75.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 865 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 13Actual: 25
FK Jablonec: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 4Actual: 2
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.19

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.21

Attack: FK Jablonec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.1%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.