Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 13

Hradec Králové–Teplice

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hradec Králové		Teplice
12	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
549	Passes	332
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hradec Králové 1.54 · Teplice 0.97. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Hradec Králové 12 · Teplice 10; on target 6 and 3.
Hradec Králové kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jakub Wulkan, Czechia→

4.25

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Hradec Králové to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Hradec Králové, 0.97 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — Hradec Králové win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hradec Králové to win50.1%

Draw27.4%

Teplice to win22.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hradec Králové lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time37.2%

Teplice lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hradec Králové ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hradec Králové: at least 12Actual: 12
Teplice: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Hradec Králové: at least 5Actual: 6
Teplice: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hradec Králové score1.54

Attack: Hradec Králové score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score0.97

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hradec Králové's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–011.7%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.