Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 13

Dukla Praha–Slovácko

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Dukla PrahaM. Cernak (assist: M. Kroupa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		Slovácko
4	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
269	Passes	374
197	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 1.04 · Slovácko 1.10. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Dukla Praha 4 · Slovácko 15; on target 2 and 2.
Slovácko kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Marek Radina, Czechia→

4.27

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Slovácko to win”. Second comes “Dukla Praha to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Dukla Praha, 1.10 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 68.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win32.5%

Draw31.6%

Slovácko to win35.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dukla Praha lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time43.6%

Slovácko lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 12Actual: 9
Slovácko: at least 12Actual: 6

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 5Actual: 2
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score1.04

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score1.10

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–112.2%0–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.