Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 13

Zlin–Pardubice

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Letna, Zlin

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'ZlinM. Koubek (assist: M. Fukala)
59'PardubiceV. Patrak (assist: J. Reznicek)
62'ZlinM. Pisoja (assist: Michal Cupak)
71'PardubiceV. Patrak (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zlin		Pardubice
8	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
3	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
231	Passes	293
134	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zlin 1.44 · Pardubice 0.91. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Zlin 8 · Pardubice 8; on target 3 and 6.
Pardubice kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Ondrej Pechanec, Czechia→

6.33

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Zlin to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Zlin, 0.91 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Zlin win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zlin to win49.0%

Draw28.5%

Pardubice to win22.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zlin lead at half-time45.6%

Level at half-time40.7%

Pardubice lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Zlin ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead54.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zlin: at least 11Actual: 13
Pardubice: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Zlin: at least 4Actual: 2
Pardubice: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zlin score1.44

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pardubice concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score0.91

Attack: Pardubice score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zlin's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–013.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.