Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 12

Teplice–Slovan Liberec

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'TepliceM. Bilek (penalty)
89'Slovan LiberecSoliu Afolabi (assist: Marek Icha)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Teplice		Slovan Liberec
9	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
251	Passes	416
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Teplice 0.98 · Slovan Liberec 1.42. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Teplice 9 · Slovan Liberec 17; on target 4 and 6.
Slovan Liberec kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Marek Radina, Czechia→

4.20

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Slovan Liberec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Teplice, 1.42 for Slovan Liberec.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (X2 — draw or Slovan Liberec win).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Teplice to win24.7%

Draw28.7%

Slovan Liberec to win46.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	23

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Teplice lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time42.2%

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time39.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Teplice ahead or level60.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Slovan Liberec ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Teplice: at least 12Actual: 13
Slovan Liberec: at least 13Actual: 23

Corners

Teplice: at least 4Actual: 3
Slovan Liberec: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Teplice score0.98

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.42

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–112.1%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.