Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 12

Bohemians 1905–Plzen

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'PlzenR. Durosinmi (assist: A. Memić)
71'Bohemians 1905E. Ramírez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		Plzen
12	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
293	Passes	411
196	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 1.15 · Plzen 1.67. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bohemians 1905 12 · Plzen 15; on target 2 and 5.
Plzen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Jakub Wulkan, Czechia→

4.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Bohemians 1905, 1.67 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (X2 — draw or Plzen win).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win24.8%

Draw26.1%

Plzen to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	0

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time14.2%

Level at half-time37.1%

Plzen lead at half-time48.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level51.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead85.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 11
Plzen: at least 10

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 4Actual: 4
Plzen: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.15

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.67

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.5%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.