Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 11

Dukla Praha–Teplice

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Dukla PrahaM. Cermak (assist: J. Kadák)
45'TepliceM. Bilek
58'Dukla PrahaJ. Peterka · red card
71'TepliceM. Kozák (assist: N. Audinis)
83'TepliceB. Nyarko (assist: J. Auta)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dukla Praha		Teplice
6	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
0	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
305	Passes	409
202	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dukla Praha 1.16 · Teplice 1.04. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Dukla Praha 6 · Teplice 14; on target 2 and 5.
Teplice kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Dominik Stary, Czechia→

2.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Dukla Praha to win”. Second comes “Teplice to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for Dukla Praha, 1.04 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 844 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dukla Praha to win37.7%

Draw31.1%

Teplice to win31.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Dukla Praha lead at half-time30.7%

Level at half-time44.3%

Teplice lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Dukla Praha ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead69.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 844 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dukla Praha: at least 12Actual: 15
Teplice: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Dukla Praha: at least 4Actual: 2
Teplice: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dukla Praha score1.16

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.04

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.1%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.