Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 11

Mlada Boleslav–Slovácko

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mlada Boleslav		Slovácko
15	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
77%	Possession	23%
667	Passes	197
586	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mlada Boleslav 1.60 · Slovácko 1.23. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Mlada Boleslav 15 · Slovácko 5; on target 5 and 1.
Mlada Boleslav kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

Karel Roucek, Czechia→

6.67

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Mlada Boleslav to win”. Second comes “Slovácko to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.23 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 844 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mlada Boleslav to win45.3%

Draw26.6%

Slovácko to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time47.5%

Level at half-time37.0%

Slovácko lead at half-time15.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Mlada Boleslav ahead or level84.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead52.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 844 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mlada Boleslav: at least 11Actual: 10
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Mlada Boleslav: at least 7Actual: 9
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.60

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score1.23

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.2%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.