Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 10

Plzen–Zlin

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 8%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'ZlinMichal Cupak

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plzen		Zlin
19	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
465	Passes	248
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plzen 2.35 · Zlin 0.67. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Plzen 19 · Zlin 15; on target 3 and 4.
Plzen kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Stanislav Volek, Czechia→

4.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.8%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.35 for Plzen, 0.67 for Zlin.
The highest double chance value is 92.4% (1X — Plzen win or draw).
These values were computed from 842 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plzen to win75.8%

Draw16.6%

Zlin to win7.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Plzen lead at half-time60.9%

Level at half-time31.5%

Zlin lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Plzen ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time68.5%

X2 — level or Zlin ahead39.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 842 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plzen: at least 10Actual: 18
Zlin: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Plzen: at least 6Actual: 10
Zlin: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plzen score2.35

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Zlin concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.35 goals.

How many goals Zlin score0.67

Attack: Zlin score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.0%3–010.9%1–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.