Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 10

FK Jablonec–Mlada Boleslav

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'FK JablonecJ. Chramosta (penalty)
60'FK JablonecJ. Chramosta (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Mlada Boleslav
14	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
324	Passes	491
270	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 2.11 · Mlada Boleslav 0.92. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FK Jablonec 14 · Mlada Boleslav 4; on target 4 and 1.
Mlada Boleslav kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jan Benes, Czechia→

7.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.1%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for FK Jablonec, 0.92 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (1X — FK Jablonec win or draw).
These values were computed from 841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win65.1%

Draw21.0%

Mlada Boleslav to win14.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Jablonec lead at half-time61.3%

Level at half-time31.2%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time7.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Jablonec ahead or level92.5%

12 — not level at half-time68.8%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead38.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 841 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Jablonec: at least 10Actual: 15
Mlada Boleslav: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

FK Jablonec: at least 5Actual: 4
Mlada Boleslav: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score2.11

Attack: FK Jablonec score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score0.92

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.0%2–110.9%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.