Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 10

Slovácko–Karviná

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'KarvináDávid Krčík (assist: Albert Labík)
17'SlováckoDávid Krčík (own goal)
35'KarvináAlexandr Bužek · red card
45'KarvináR. Storman

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovácko		Karviná
16	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	9
1	Offsides	5
57%	Possession	43%
400	Passes	297
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovácko 1.44 · Karviná 1.38. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Slovácko 16 · Karviná 10; on target 3 and 6.
Slovácko kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Daniel Vokoun, Czechia→

3.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Slovácko to win”. Second comes “Karviná to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Slovácko, 1.38 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 836 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovácko to win37.9%

Draw27.2%

Karviná to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–2

Slovácko lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time40.3%

Karviná lead at half-time40.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovácko ahead or level59.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovácko: at least 10Actual: 16
Karviná: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Slovácko: at least 5Actual: 2
Karviná: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovácko score1.44

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karviná score1.38

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.