Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 10

Bohemians 1905–Sigma Olomouc

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Bohemians 1905M. Ristovski (assist: V. Zeman)
17'Sigma OlomoucDaniel Vašulín (assist: Abdoulaye Sylla)
18'Sigma OlomoucDaniel Vašulín
65'Bohemians 1905Yusuf (assist: V. Sinyavskiy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		Sigma Olomouc
10	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
373	Passes	318
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 1.31 · Sigma Olomouc 1.02. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Bohemians 1905 10 · Sigma Olomouc 14; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Marek Radina, Czechia→

4.38

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Bohemians 1905 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Bohemians 1905, 1.02 for Sigma Olomouc.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Bohemians 1905 win or draw).
These values were computed from 836 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win42.4%

Draw29.8%

Sigma Olomouc to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time27.4%

Level at half-time44.9%

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Sigma Olomouc ahead72.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 11Actual: 10
Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 5Actual: 1
Sigma Olomouc: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.31

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.02

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.0%0–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.