Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 10

Slavia Praha–Dukla Praha

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Andrův stadion, Olomouc

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (assist: C. Zafeiris)
40'Slavia PrahaT. Chorý (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Dukla Praha
20	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
433	Passes	262
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 2.44 · Dukla Praha 0.37. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Slavia Praha 20 · Dukla Praha 5; on target 7 and 2.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Dalibor Cerny, Czechia→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.3%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for Slavia Praha, 0.37 for Dukla Praha.
The highest double chance value is 96.8% (1X — Slavia Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 835 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win84.3%

Draw12.4%

Dukla Praha to win3.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Slavia Praha lead at half-time53.7%

Level at half-time37.3%

Dukla Praha lead at half-time9.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Slavia Praha ahead or level91.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Dukla Praha ahead46.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 835 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 12
Dukla Praha: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Slavia Praha: at least 7
Dukla Praha: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score2.44

Attack: Slavia Praha score 65% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Dukla Praha's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dukla Praha score0.37

Attack: Dukla Praha score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.7%3–015.3%1–014.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.