Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 9

Slovan Liberec–Slavia Praha

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Slovan LiberecPetr Hodouš (assist: Jan Mikula)
87'Slavia PrahaVasil Kušej (assist: E. Prekop)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		Slavia Praha
7	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	11
0	Offsides	2
30%	Possession	70%
177	Passes	417
92	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 0.80 · Slavia Praha 1.76. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Slovan Liberec 7 · Slavia Praha 17; on target 4 and 3.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Jan Vsetecka, Czechia→

4.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.80 for Slovan Liberec, 1.76 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 84.7% (X2 — draw or Slavia Praha win).
These values were computed from 833 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win15.3%

Draw24.4%

Slavia Praha to win60.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time20.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Slavia Praha lead at half-time35.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level64.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Slavia Praha ahead79.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 833 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 11Actual: 19
Slavia Praha: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 3Actual: 4
Slavia Praha: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score0.80

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.76

Attack: Slavia Praha score 66% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.9%1–112.4%0–212.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.