Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 9

Sparta Praha–Plzen

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'PlzenM. Vydra (assist: A. Memić)
56'Sparta PrahaJohn Mercado (assist: Patrik Vydra)
76'PlzenM. Vydra · red card
78'Sparta PrahaV. Birmančević (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Plzen
15	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
453	Passes	267
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.64 · Plzen 1.24. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Sparta Praha 15 · Plzen 12; on target 9 and 4.
Sparta Praha kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Marek Radina, Czechia→

4.29

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “Plzen to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Sparta Praha, 1.24 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 831 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win46.2%

Draw26.2%

Plzen to win27.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sparta Praha lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time38.0%

Plzen lead at half-time41.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level58.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 831 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 13
Plzen: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 5Actual: 11
Plzen: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.64

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Plzen concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.24

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.3%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.