Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 9

Karviná–FK Jablonec

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'FK JablonecM. Cedidla
77'FK JablonecA. Rusek (assist: F. Novak)
85'KarvináDávid Krčík (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karviná		FK Jablonec
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
459	Passes	241
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karviná 1.23 · FK Jablonec 1.71. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Karviná 12 · FK Jablonec 10; on target 4 and 3.
Karviná kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Dominik Stary, Czechia→

2.83

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “Karviná to win” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Karviná, 1.71 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karviná to win26.0%

Draw25.7%

FK Jablonec to win48.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Karviná lead at half-time17.0%

Level at half-time38.2%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time44.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Karviná ahead or level55.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead83.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 827 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karviná: at least 12Actual: 17
FK Jablonec: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Karviná: at least 4Actual: 7
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karviná score1.23

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.71

Attack: FK Jablonec score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–210.5%0–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.