Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 9

Sigma Olomouc–Teplice

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sigma Olomouc		Teplice
12	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	8
1	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
389	Passes	215
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sigma Olomouc 1.47 · Teplice 0.94. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sigma Olomouc 12 · Teplice 9; on target 5 and 3.
Sigma Olomouc kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Dalibor Cerny, Czechia→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Sigma Olomouc to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Sigma Olomouc, 0.94 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (1X — Sigma Olomouc win or draw).
These values were computed from 827 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sigma Olomouc to win49.2%

Draw28.2%

Teplice to win22.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	23

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sigma Olomouc lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Teplice lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sigma Olomouc ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 827 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sigma Olomouc: at least 11Actual: 20
Teplice: at least 12Actual: 23

Corners

Sigma Olomouc: at least 4Actual: 3
Teplice: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sigma Olomouc score1.47

Attack: Sigma Olomouc score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score0.94

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sigma Olomouc's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–012.5%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.