Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 8

FK Jablonec–Pardubice

3–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'FK JablonecJ. Chramosta (assist: L. Jawo)
33'FK JablonecL. Jawo (assist: V. Chanturishvili)
36'FK JablonecL. Jawo (assist: D. Soucek)
60'PardubiceRyan Mahuta (assist: Samuel Šimek)
70'PardubiceV. Patrak (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Jablonec		Pardubice
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
436	Passes	361
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Jablonec 2.08 · Pardubice 0.66. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots FK Jablonec 14 · Pardubice 11; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

Jan Machalek, Czechia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for FK Jablonec, 0.66 for Pardubice.
The highest double chance value is 90.7% (1X — FK Jablonec win or draw).
These values were computed from 823 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Jablonec to win71.2%

Draw19.5%

Pardubice to win9.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

FK Jablonec lead at half-time52.0%

Level at half-time38.0%

Pardubice lead at half-time9.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Jablonec ahead or level90.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Pardubice ahead48.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 823 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Jablonec: at least 9Actual: 10
Pardubice: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FK Jablonec: at least 6Actual: 5
Pardubice: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Jablonec score2.08

Attack: FK Jablonec score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Pardubice concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pardubice score0.66

Attack: Pardubice score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.5%1–012.8%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.