Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 7

Slovan Liberec–Plzen

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 31 August 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion U Nisy, Liberec

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'PlzenT. Ladra (assist: M. Vydra)
65'Slovan LiberecŠ. Gabriel (assist: Michal Hlavatý)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slovan Liberec		Plzen
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
317	Passes	261
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slovan Liberec 1.20 · Plzen 1.61. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Slovan Liberec 14 · Plzen 8; on target 5 and 2.
Slovan Liberec kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Karel Roucek, Czechia→

7.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “Slovan Liberec to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Slovan Liberec, 1.61 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 815 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slovan Liberec to win27.2%

Draw26.6%

Plzen to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Slovan Liberec lead at half-time25.8%

Level at half-time41.6%

Plzen lead at half-time32.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Slovan Liberec ahead or level67.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead74.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 815 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Slovan Liberec: at least 11Actual: 14
Plzen: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Slovan Liberec: at least 4Actual: 6
Plzen: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slovan Liberec score1.20

Attack: Slovan Liberec score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score1.61

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Slovan Liberec's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.3%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.