Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 7

Karviná–Teplice

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'KarvináAbdallah Gning (assist: Ebrima Singhateh)
17'KarvináAbdallah Gning (assist: D. Samko)
53'KarvináAlexandr Bužek (assist: Abdallah Gning)
79'KarvináLucky Ezeh (assist: D. Samko)
87'TepliceS. Camara (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karviná		Teplice
9	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
429	Passes	314
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karviná 1.61 · Teplice 1.17. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Karviná 9 · Teplice 11; on target 6 and 1.
Karviná kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Jan Vsetecka, Czechia→

4.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Karviná to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Karviná, 1.17 for Teplice.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Karviná win or draw).
These values were computed from 810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karviná to win47.0%

Draw26.6%

Teplice to win26.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Karviná lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time43.0%

Teplice lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Karviná ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Teplice ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 810 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karviná: at least 11Actual: 17
Teplice: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Karviná: at least 5Actual: 2
Teplice: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karviná score1.61

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Teplice's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Teplice score1.17

Attack: Teplice score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.4%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.