Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Baník Ostrava–Slovácko

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 August 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Baník OstravaLadislav Almási (assist: C. Frydek)
78'Baník OstravaE. Prekop (assist: S. Plavsic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Baník Ostrava		Slovácko
21	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
13	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
474	Passes	315
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Baník Ostrava 1.92 · Slovácko 0.88. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Baník Ostrava 21 · Slovácko 11; on target 5 and 2.
Baník Ostrava kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Ondrej Berka, Czechia→

3.33

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Baník Ostrava to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Baník Ostrava, 0.88 for Slovácko.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — Baník Ostrava win or draw).
These values were computed from 808 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Baník Ostrava to win61.9%

Draw22.9%

Slovácko to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Baník Ostrava lead at half-time56.3%

Level at half-time35.2%

Slovácko lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Baník Ostrava ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time64.8%

X2 — level or Slovácko ahead43.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 808 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Baník Ostrava: at least 10Actual: 10
Slovácko: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Baník Ostrava: at least 6Actual: 13
Slovácko: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Baník Ostrava score1.92

Attack: Baník Ostrava score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Slovácko's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Slovácko score0.88

Attack: Slovácko score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Baník Ostrava's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–011.5%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.