Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 6

Plzen–Karviná

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'PlzenR. Durosinmi
69'KarvináR. Storman (assist: E. Ayaosi)
90'PlzenM. Vydra (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Plzen		Karviná
20	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
13	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
354	Passes	382
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Plzen 2.50 · Karviná 0.84. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Plzen 20 · Karviná 13; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

Dalibor Cerny, Czechia→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.3%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Plzen, 0.84 for Karviná.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (1X — Plzen win or draw).
These values were computed from 803 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Plzen to win74.3%

Draw16.5%

Karviná to win9.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,613 of 7,010 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Plzen win or draw90.8%

12 — any result other than a draw83.5%

X2 — draw or Karviná win25.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Plzen lead at half-time62.6%

Level at half-time30.0%

Karviná lead at half-time7.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Plzen ahead or level92.7%

12 — not level at half-time70.0%

X2 — level or Karviná ahead37.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Plzen: at least 10Actual: 9
Karviná: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Plzen: at least 6Actual: 13
Karviná: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Plzen score2.50

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Karviná concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.50 goals.

How many goals Karviná score0.84

Attack: Karviná score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Plzen's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%2–110.2%3–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 803 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.