Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 4

Bohemians 1905–FK Jablonec

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'FK JablonecJ. Chramosta (assist: Alexis Alegue)
68'Bohemians 1905V. Sinyavskiy · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bohemians 1905		FK Jablonec
8	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
359	Passes	361
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bohemians 1905 1.14 · FK Jablonec 1.47. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Bohemians 1905 8 · FK Jablonec 10; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

Pavel Orel, Czechia→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “FK Jablonec to win”. Second comes “Bohemians 1905 to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Bohemians 1905, 1.47 for FK Jablonec.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 791 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bohemians 1905 to win28.1%

Draw27.9%

FK Jablonec to win44.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

5	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Bohemians 1905 lead at half-time18.0%

Level at half-time40.7%

FK Jablonec lead at half-time41.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Bohemians 1905 ahead or level58.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or FK Jablonec ahead82.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 791 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bohemians 1905: at least 12Actual: 15
FK Jablonec: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Bohemians 1905: at least 4Actual: 5
FK Jablonec: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bohemians 1905 score1.14

Attack: Bohemians 1905 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Jablonec concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Jablonec score1.47

Attack: FK Jablonec score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Bohemians 1905's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.9%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.