Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 2

Sparta Praha–Mlada Boleslav

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 July 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Sparta PrahaAlbion Rrahmani (assist: Patrik Vydra)
40'Mlada BoleslavDavid Pech (assist: Roman Macek)
48'Mlada BoleslavMatyáš Vojta
56'Sparta PrahaJ. Kuchta (assist: L. Haraslin)
90'Sparta PrahaL. Haraslin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Mlada Boleslav
19	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
4	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
392	Passes	389
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 2.25 · Mlada Boleslav 0.79. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Sparta Praha 19 · Mlada Boleslav 11; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

Karel Roucek, Czechia→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.2%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Sparta Praha, 0.79 for Mlada Boleslav.
The highest double chance value is 89.8% (1X — Sparta Praha win or draw).
These values were computed from 779 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win71.2%

Draw18.6%

Mlada Boleslav to win10.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 913 of 1,223 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sparta Praha lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time38.3%

Mlada Boleslav lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Praha ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Mlada Boleslav ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 779 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Praha: at least 10Actual: 7
Mlada Boleslav: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Sparta Praha: at least 6Actual: 5
Mlada Boleslav: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score2.25

Attack: Sparta Praha score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.25 goals.

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score0.79

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%2–110.5%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.