Czech Liga · Czech-Republic · Regular Season - 1

Pardubice–Plzen

1–5

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Friday, 18 July 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'PlzenM. Vydra (assist: P. Sulc)
29'PlzenKarel Spáčil (assist: T. Ladra)
34'PardubiceV. Jemelka (own goal)
44'PlzenP. Sulc (assist: Karel Spáčil)
55'PlzenM. Vydra (assist: T. Ladra)
67'PlzenR. Durosinmi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pardubice		Plzen
4	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	8
2	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
348	Passes	450
268	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pardubice 0.85 · Plzen 2.00. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Pardubice 4 · Plzen 15; on target 2 and 6.
Plzen kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

O. Pechanec→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.5%: “Plzen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.85 for Pardubice, 2.00 for Plzen.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (X2 — draw or Plzen win).
These values were computed from 765 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pardubice to win13.6%

Draw21.8%

Plzen to win64.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

Pardubice lead at half-time12.6%

Level at half-time39.0%

Plzen lead at half-time48.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Pardubice ahead or level51.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Plzen ahead87.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 765 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pardubice: at least 11Actual: 8
Plzen: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Pardubice: at least 3Actual: 1
Plzen: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pardubice score0.85

Attack: Pardubice score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Plzen concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Plzen score2.00

Attack: Plzen score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Pardubice concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.00 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.9%1–111.1%1–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.