Eredivisie · Netherlands · Final

Ajax–Utrecht

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

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What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 1.79 · Utrecht 1.17. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.17

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Ajax, 1.17 for Utrecht.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (1X — Ajax win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win51.6%

Draw25.0%

Utrecht to win23.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

Double chance

1X — Ajax win or draw76.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.0%

X2 — draw or Utrecht win48.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ajax lead at half-time45.0%

Level at half-time39.3%

Utrecht lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajax ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Utrecht ahead55.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1224 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajax: at least 9
Utrecht: at least 11

Corners

Ajax: at least 4
Utrecht: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score1.79

Attack: Ajax score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Utrecht score1.17

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.7%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.