Eredivisie · Netherlands · Semi-finals

Utrecht–Heerenveen

3–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 21 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Goals and red cards

46'UtrechtA. Stepanov
54'HeerenveenD. Vente (assist: J. van Overeem)
56'UtrechtM. van der Hoorn (assist: Souffian El Karouani)
58'UtrechtSouffian El Karouani (assist: N. Vesterlund)
77'HeerenveenJ. Trenskow (assist: D. Vente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Utrecht		Heerenveen
23	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
367	Passes	543
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Utrecht 1.85 · Heerenveen 1.20. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Utrecht 23 · Heerenveen 13; on target 8 and 5.
Heerenveen kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. van der Laan→

2.89

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “Utrecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Utrecht, 1.20 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Utrecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Utrecht to win52.4%

Draw24.4%

Heerenveen to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Utrecht lead at half-time44.5%

Level at half-time38.7%

Heerenveen lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Utrecht ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead55.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1224 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Utrecht: at least 8Actual: 11
Heerenveen: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Utrecht: at least 4Actual: 9
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Utrecht score1.85

Attack: Utrecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.20

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Utrecht's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.7%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.