Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 34

Sparta Rotterdam–Excelsior

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'ExcelsiorG. Vianello (own goal)
50'ExcelsiorA. Zagré
53'Sparta RotterdamA. Santos
62'ExcelsiorN. Naujoks (assist: G. de Regt)
90'Sparta RotterdamM. Zonneveld (assist: T. Lauritsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Rotterdam		Excelsior
18	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
420	Passes	383
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam 1.69 · Excelsior 1.26. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Sparta Rotterdam 18 · Excelsior 16; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

A. Lindhout→

3.16

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Sparta Rotterdam to win”. Second comes “Excelsior to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.37 for Excelsior.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Rotterdam to win47.0%

Draw24.9%

Excelsior to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sparta Rotterdam lead at half-time33.3%

Level at half-time43.9%

Excelsior lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sparta Rotterdam ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Excelsior ahead66.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 8Actual: 11
Excelsior: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Sparta Rotterdam: at least 5Actual: 5
Excelsior: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Rotterdam score1.69

Attack: Sparta Rotterdam score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Excelsior score1.26

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Rotterdam's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.3%1–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.