Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 34

AZ Alkmaar–NAC Breda

3–3

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: T. Parrott)
12'AZ AlkmaarMateo Chávez (assist: S. Mijnans)
61'NAC BredaM. Soumano (assist: C. Valerius)
71'NAC BredaM. Soumano (assist: F. Jensen)
89'NAC BredaJ. Talvitie (assist: C. Valerius)
90'AZ AlkmaarMexx Meerdink

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		NAC Breda
16	Shots	17
10	Shots on target	11
12	Shots inside the box	8
7	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
430	Passes	355
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 2.11 · NAC Breda 0.83. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 16 · NAC Breda 17; on target 10 and 11.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

E. van de Graaf→

3.17

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.8%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.73 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.04 for NAC Breda.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — AZ Alkmaar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,215 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win73.8%

Draw15.8%

NAC Breda to win10.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time56.8%

Level at half-time33.7%

NAC Breda lead at half-time9.4%

First-half double chance

1X — AZ Alkmaar ahead or level90.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or NAC Breda ahead43.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1215 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AZ Alkmaar: at least 10Actual: 11
NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

AZ Alkmaar: at least 5Actual: 7
NAC Breda: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score2.11

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NAC Breda score0.83

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%3–19.0%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.