Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

NAC Breda–Heerenveen

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'NAC BredaB. Kemper
74'NAC BredaB. Kemper (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Heerenveen
19	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
360	Passes	397
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.35 · Heerenveen 1.54. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots NAC Breda 19 · Heerenveen 13; on target 4 and 2.

Referee

S. van der Eijk→

3.47

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “NAC Breda to win”. Second comes “Heerenveen to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for NAC Breda, 1.60 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,214 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win37.8%

Draw25.3%

Heerenveen to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — NAC Breda win or draw63.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win62.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

NAC Breda lead at half-time24.0%

Level at half-time40.0%

Heerenveen lead at half-time36.0%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level64.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead76.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1214 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 8Actual: 10
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 7
Heerenveen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.35

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.54

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–19.1%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1214 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 66 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.