Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Groningen–NEC Nijmegen

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Euroborg, Groningen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'GroningenM. Rente (assist: Y. Taha)
51'GroningenT. Land (assist: Y. Taha)
76'NEC NijmegenD. Nejasmic (assist: S. Ouaissa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Groningen		NEC Nijmegen
11	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
6	Offsides	4
50%	Possession	50%
357	Passes	361
256	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Groningen 1.74 · NEC Nijmegen 1.45. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Groningen 11 · NEC Nijmegen 12; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

A. Bos→

3.06

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “NEC Nijmegen to win”. Second comes “Groningen to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Groningen, 1.61 for NEC Nijmegen.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Groningen to win34.4%

Draw25.8%

NEC Nijmegen to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Groningen lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time39.1%

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Groningen ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or NEC Nijmegen ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Groningen: at least 10Actual: 16
NEC Nijmegen: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Groningen: at least 5Actual: 5
NEC Nijmegen: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Groningen score1.74

Attack: Groningen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NEC Nijmegen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals NEC Nijmegen score1.45

Attack: NEC Nijmegen score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Groningen's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–29.5%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.