Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 33

Excelsior–FC Volendam

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'FC VolendamB. Pauwels (assist: J. Bacuna)
38'ExcelsiorG. Yah (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Excelsior		FC Volendam
8	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	0
0	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
528	Passes	259
443	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Excelsior 1.92 · FC Volendam 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Excelsior 8 · FC Volendam 8; on target 2 and 2.
Excelsior kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

D. Makkelie→

3.37

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

130

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.3%: “Excelsior to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Excelsior, 1.10 for FC Volendam.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — Excelsior win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Excelsior to win56.3%

Draw23.7%

FC Volendam to win20.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Excelsior lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time37.3%

FC Volendam lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Excelsior ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or FC Volendam ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Excelsior: at least 11Actual: 10
FC Volendam: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

Excelsior: at least 5
FC Volendam: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Excelsior score1.92

Attack: Excelsior score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Volendam score1.10

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Excelsior's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.9%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.