Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 32

PEC Zwolle–Heracles

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'PEC ZwolleA. MacNulty (assist: R. Thomas)
63'HeraclesSem Scheperman · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
PEC Zwolle		Heracles
9	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
363	Passes	423
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PEC Zwolle 2.02 · Heracles 1.19. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots PEC Zwolle 9 · Heracles 14; on target 5 and 3.
Heracles kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Dieperink→

3.13

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.4%: “PEC Zwolle to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.22 for PEC Zwolle, 1.08 for Heracles.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — PEC Zwolle win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,202 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PEC Zwolle to win63.4%

Draw20.7%

Heracles to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle win or draw84.1%

12 — any result other than a draw79.3%

X2 — draw or Heracles win36.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time34.3%

Heracles lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — PEC Zwolle ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time65.7%

X2 — level or Heracles ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1202 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PEC Zwolle: at least 10Actual: 18
Heracles: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

PEC Zwolle: at least 4Actual: 3
Heracles: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals65.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score2.02

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heracles concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heracles score1.19

Attack: Heracles score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–19.8%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1202 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 99 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.