Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 32

FC Volendam–Heerenveen

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 10:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kras Stadion, Volendam

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'HeerenveenL. Oyen (assist: V. Zagaritis)
86'HeerenveenD. Vente (assist: J. Trenskow)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Volendam		Heerenveen
15	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
375	Passes	394
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Volendam 1.37 · Heerenveen 1.62. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots FC Volendam 15 · Heerenveen 11; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Heerenveen to win”. Second comes “FC Volendam to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for FC Volendam, 1.81 for Heerenveen.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Volendam to win30.2%

Draw24.6%

Heerenveen to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Volendam win or draw54.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.4%

X2 — draw or Heerenveen win69.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Volendam lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time40.0%

Heerenveen lead at half-time39.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Volendam ahead or level60.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Heerenveen ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Volendam: at least 8Actual: 8
Heerenveen: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

FC Volendam: at least 4Actual: 7
Heerenveen: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 60.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Volendam score1.37

Attack: FC Volendam score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heerenveen's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heerenveen score1.62

Attack: Heerenveen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Volendam's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–29.9%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1201 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 99 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.