Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

NAC Breda–Ajax

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'AjaxO. Gloukh (assist: M. Godts)
41'AjaxM. Godts (assist: W. Weghorst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
NAC Breda		Ajax
21	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
507	Passes	393
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: NAC Breda 1.18 · Ajax 1.60. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots NAC Breda 21 · Ajax 8; on target 3 and 6.
NAC Breda kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

S. Gozubuyuk→

4.09

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Ajax to win”. Second comes “NAC Breda to win” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for NAC Breda, 1.72 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

NAC Breda to win27.2%

Draw25.5%

Ajax to win47.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

NAC Breda lead at half-time13.5%

Level at half-time36.7%

Ajax lead at half-time49.8%

First-half double chance

1X — NAC Breda ahead or level50.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Ajax ahead86.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1193 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

NAC Breda: at least 10Actual: 6
Ajax: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

NAC Breda: at least 5Actual: 11
Ajax: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals NAC Breda score1.18

Attack: NAC Breda score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score1.60

Attack: Ajax score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: NAC Breda's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.4%0–17.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.