Eredivisie · Netherlands · Regular Season - 31

PSV Eindhoven–PEC Zwolle

6–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 April 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi (assist: E. Bajraktarevic)
51'PEC ZwolleZ. Buurmeester
57'PSV EindhovenR. Pepi (assist: E. Bajraktarevic)
72'PSV EindhovenS. Graves (own goal)
73'PSV EindhovenE. Bajraktarevic (assist: G. Til)
79'PSV EindhovenCouhaib Driouech

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		PEC Zwolle
17	Shots	6
11	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
700	Passes	340
633	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 3.03 · PEC Zwolle 0.69. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 17 · PEC Zwolle 6; on target 11 and 4.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

M. Nagtegaal→

2.62

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.1%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.92 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.12 for PEC Zwolle.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (1X — PSV Eindhoven win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win75.1%

Draw14.8%

PEC Zwolle to win10.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

PSV Eindhoven lead at half-time74.4%

Level at half-time22.2%

PEC Zwolle lead at half-time3.5%

First-half double chance

1X — PSV Eindhoven ahead or level96.5%

12 — not level at half-time77.8%

X2 — level or PEC Zwolle ahead25.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

PSV Eindhoven: at least 9Actual: 10
PEC Zwolle: at least 9Actual: 4

Corners

PSV Eindhoven: at least 7Actual: 4
PEC Zwolle: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score3.03

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: PEC Zwolle concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.03 goals.

How many goals PEC Zwolle score0.69

Attack: PEC Zwolle score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.1%3–19.1%2–07.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.